KyKurmudgeon

Pre-Turkey Day musings

This and that before taking a long holiday weekend:

1. Throughout this year's gubernatorial campaign, Gov. Ernie Fletcher bragged about the great budgetary balancing act his administration has performed during his term. A particular point of emphasis in that portion of his campaign spiel was in Medicaid, where he claimed the reforms his administration initiated had solved an inherited "deficit."

Only after the election did Kentuckians learn that the Medicaid "deficit" didn't stay solved. This week brought word that the Medicaid program needs another $112 million in state money to leverage federal matching funds and fill a $389 million shortfall in the current budget year.

Oh, by the way, a few other state agencies are finding themselves running short this year, to the tune of about $20 million.

Meanwhile, state revenue forecasts are shrinking as the budgetary demands for fulfilling commitments to higher education, teachers' salaries, the state's pension programs and assorted other areas of government grow.

Under the best of circumstances, crafting a budget proposal is a difficult task for an incoming governor simply because of the short time between Election Day and the deadline for submitting a spending plan to the General Assembly. With current fiscal circumstances obviously being less than optimal, Gov.-elect Steve Beshear has some unpleasant decisions to make in the next couple of months.

And I wouldn't bet on the Medicaid shortfall being the last surprise Beshear will find during the transition of power in the Governor's Office.

2. At first, I thought it a bit odd and somewhat less than "newsy" that Beshear would call a press conference just to announce a Web site where people can register for non-merit positions in the new administration.

But I attended anyway. (We media grunts tend to do that with governors - and perhaps even more so with new governors - just in case they say something that does qualify as "news.") And I came away with the impression that the Web site announcement was just an excuse for Beshear deliver a "lesson learned" message about the Fletcher administration's hiring scandal.

Beshear owes his election to the hiring investigation, or at least to Fletcher's bumbling responses to the probe. But if the lesson from it is truly learned, the governor-elect will continue to enjoy some beneficial effects from it throughout his term. The outcome of the scandal, and particularly the state Personnel Board's reinstatement of Mike Duncan to his job in the Transportation Cabinet, should help immunize him from the kind of political pressures that led the Fletcher administration to politicize the hiring and firing or merit system employees.

After all, Democrats can't want their governor to wind up in his own BlackBerry Jam, can they?

3. Although Beshear has said he wants Democrats to retake control of the state Senate next year, it might be wise of him to avoid being overtly involved in that fight during the upcoming General Assembly session.

Yes, he is the leader of his party now. But he's also a governor who wants to get at least some of his agenda through a Republican-controlled Senate, and Senate President David Williams has made it clear that task will become infinitely more difficult if Beshear is at the same time recruiting opponents for Republican senators. And Williams doesn't make idle threats.

So, if Beshear wants to have some successes during the first session of his term, he might want to leave legislative candidate recruitment to the Democratic caucuses in the respective houses and to Jennifer Moore and Nathan Smith, the new chair and co-chair at party headquarters.

Of course, after the session, there's nothing stopping Beshear from helping his party's candidates raise money. That's to be expected from any governor.

4. Before I started writing editorials/columns/blog entries and realized the best job in journalism is being paid to be an opinionated SOB, my last assignment as a reporter was covering the 1979 gubernatorial race between John Y. Brown Jr. and Louie Nunn. I gained respect for Brown during that campaign, and I thought he did a decent job as governor.

But try as I might, I can't think of any way to describe his decision to skip the inauguration of Beshear, his opponent in a contentious 1987 gubernatorial primary won by Wallace Wilkinson, as anything but the act of a sore loser.

5. Enjoy your Turkey Day. I'll be back Monday.

A climate of embarrassment

Sunday's column:

FRANKFORT — Introducing the main speaker at an interim legislative committee meeting Wednesday, Chairman Jim Gooch mistakenly pronounced what should have been a silent “s.”

As a result, Viscount (“ví-kount,” according to Random House Webster’s College Dictionary) Christopher Walker Monckton became a “vizz (rhymes with fizz)-count.”

Although Rep. Mike Cherry, D-Princeton, got it right when he later addressed Monckton, several other lawmakers on the panel repeated the “vizzcount” mistake often during the course of a lengthy meeting. 

Should Kentuckians be embarrassed that some of their legislators don’t know a viscount from a vizzcount? Probably.

But hey, back in the day, I joined other folks where I grew up in claiming to hail from “Warshington” County instead of Washington County. So, who am I to cast pronunciation stones?

Besides, a mispronounced title was the least of the reasons Kentuckians should be embarrassed about the bizarre farce Representative Gooch, D-Providence, perpetrated on the state last week.

We should be embarrassed that he insulted our intelligence by providing Monckton and James Taylor of the Heartland Institute a forum to spread the gospel according to them on climate change — said gospel being that there is no such thing as global warming, and even if there is, humans aren’t contributing to it and we’ll all be the better for melting polar icecaps, rising ocean levels, higher temperatures and more extreme weather conditions.

We should be even more embarrassed that Gooch and several other members of the committee bought what the snake-oil peddler with the British accent and his sidekick were selling.

Rep. Brad Montell, R-Shelbyville, went so far as to label Monckton’s spiel a “splendid academic rebuttal” of the consensus scientific wisdom on climate change.

“Splendid” it was, in much the same way some of the more pompous and officious characters in a Gilbert and Sullivan comic opera are splendid sendups.

Academic rebuttal? Not.

It was just a guy with a slide show (173 of them, each bearing what appeared to be a crest composed of a crown atop a portcullis bracketed by chains), an authoritative voice and a well-practiced patter offering indecipherable graphs and formulas and disingenuous comparisons as “proof” that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the U.S. National Academy of Sciences and its counterparts in other developed nations and the mainstream media have all got it wrong on global warming.

I was particularly impressed with the way he interpreted the longer life expectancy in developed nations where there are high levels of carbon-dioxide emissions and the high child-mortality rates in undeveloped nations where there are low levels of emissions to mean that the higher emissions help people live longer.

Gee, you mean the better health care, better water treatment and better regulation of the food chain you find in developed nations has nothing to do with longer life spans and fewer child deaths?

Taylor’s presentation, filled with references to “alarmist global warming theory” and “alleged scientific consensus,” wasn’t nearly as entertaining as Monckton’s, but was equally disingenuous.

Whether Gooch and other apologists for the coal and oil industries want to admit it, the serious scientific debate about climate change is over. And wasting valuable committee time listening to non-scientists such as Monckton and Taylor say it isn’t won’t change that fact.

As James E. Hansen, director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York, said in a letter delivered to the committee Wednesday, “If such positions are taken seriously by Kentucky authorities, it risks more than embarrassment. It risks delay in serious evaluation of the appropriate response to the problems and the opportunities posed by the threat of climate change. ... Presentations that deny the reality of global climate change and the increasing role of human-made emissions are out of touch with current scientific knowledge.”

Yes, we Kentuckians should be embarrassed by Wednesday’s farcical waste of lawmakers’ time. And no one should be more embarrassed than the Democratic House leaders who awarded Gooch a committee chairmanship.

They — and we — should be thankful that TV writers are on strike at the moment. Otherwise, late-night viewers across the land would be guffawing at us now — and it wouldn’t be because a few of our lawmakers don’t know viscount from a vizzcount.

No mandate on gambling

Today's column:

FRANKFORT — This and that as the governor-elect searches for more people with cabinet-level resumes:

Steve Beshear didn’t stress expanded gambling nearly as much in the fall campaign as he did in winning last May’s crowded Democratic primary.

But after last week’s election, he was quick to say his landslide victory over Gov. Ernie Fletcher sent a “clear message” that Kentuckians want to vote on the gambling issue.

According to Beshear’s post-election comments, voters sent two other clear messages as well: They want “change,” and they want an end to the “rank partisanship” that has marked the state’s political discourse in recent years.

On change, Beshear will get no argument from me. When an incumbent officeholder gets thumped by 17 percentage points, there can be no doubt that voters are demanding change.

I’ll even give the governor-elect the benefit of a doubt on the partisanship message, since his winning campaign embraced inclusiveness and cooperation while Fletcher’s losing campaign often exploited the tactics of divisiveness.

But I think Beshear overstates the impact expanded gambling had on the outcome of this election.

Yes, it was one of his issues. And I can understand the political benefits of spinning the election results as representing a mandate for putting a constitutional amendment on next year’s ballot. If he can get lawmakers to believe that, it improves his chances of getting an amendment through the General Assembly.

But it was Fletcher, not Beshear, who tried to turn the fall race into a referendum on gambling. And he failed.

Polls indicate Kentuckians are evenly divided on expanded gambling, and Fletcher made “Not in my Kentucky home” the dominant theme of his campaign. But he couldn’t move his numbers enough to make this a close race even by appealing to the 50 percent of Kentuckians who oppose more gambling, which suggests that the message voters sent last week had far less to do with gambling than it did with the incumbent’s record.

                                      * * *

Having said all that, I can imagine a scenario where Beshear could get at least a silent assist on the gambling issue from some strange bedfellows.

Kentucky Republicans are coming off two election cycles that saw Democrats regain momentum in a state that had been trending red.

U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell, the Republican floor leader closely aligned with an unpopular president and an unpopular war, has said he expects the toughest re-election fight of his career in 2008.

State Senate President David Williams wants to retain control of that chamber in the wake of a meltdown by the first Republican administration in more than 30 years.

If one or both of these savvy politicians decide a gambling amendment will bring their conservative base out in force next November, its likelihood of passing the Senate would improve dramatically.

Sure, Williams is on the record opposing expanded gambling. And McConnell is on the record as being hands-off on a state issue. But if there is an advantage to be gained by doing so, it would be a simple matter for Williams to allow a floor vote instead of blocking it.

Perhaps he had that possibility in mind last week when he said he would not pack a Senate committee to keep an amendment from coming to the floor. Or perhaps he was simply showing Beshear some deference by not picking an early fight with him. With Williams, you never know what he’s thinking until he wants you to know.

More messes on the way for Frankfort

Michael Cooper, executive director of Gov.-elect Steve Beshear's Inaugural Committee, said at a press conference today that, in honor of the 2010 World Equestrian Games coming to the Kentucky Horse Park, there will be a record number of equestrian units in the Dec. 11 inaugural parade.

Oh, well, so much for my advice about avoiding prophetic messes in the streets of Frankfort on Inauguration Day.

Learning from Fletcher's mistakes

Sunday's column:

Good morning, Gov.-elect Steve Beshear.

Pardon me for addressing you personally. But it seemed the most appropriate way to approach today’s topic: the lessons you can learn from the mistakes of your predecessor.

Based on some of your pre- and post-election comments, I believe you may already be fairly far along on this learning curve. But a little review never hurts.

First and foremost, as you look in the mirror each day for the next four years, remind yourself that your Tuesday victory was serendipitous in nature. Although you ran a good campaign, this election wasn’t about you — just as the 2003 election wasn’t about Ernie Fletcher.

Former Gov. Paul Patton’s sexcapades gift-wrapped the 2003 election for Republicans, long before Fletcher emerged as the candidate. Fletcher’s hiring scandal gift-wrapped this election for Democrats, long before you emerged as the candidate.

Fletcher forgot (or perhaps never understood) that he was simply in the right place at the right time to have the Governor’s Office handed to him four years ago. He thought it was all about him and let the powers of the office go to his head. We all know how that story ended.

So, as you approach the awesome task of governing during the next four years, I hope for Kentucky’s sake you always keep in mind the humbling thought that just as Fletcher did in 2003, you won this year’s general election almost by default. If you do, you should have no trouble staying grounded.

But just in case you occasionally need help in that regard, surround yourself with grownups who are well-grounded in common sense. Make sure several of them are folks who, on appropriate occasions, will look you in the eye and say, “Dumb idea, Governor,” and then explain to you why it’s a dumb idea.

Keep the pomp and circumstance to a minimum. Don’t just make a show of governing. Actually govern.

The same goes for hype. It really isn’t necessary to issue a press release taking personal credit every time your administration does its job of serving the public.

We know who will be sitting atop the executive branch food chain come Dec. 11. We know who ultimately will be responsible, for the credit and the blame. We don’t need two dozen press releases a day to remind us.

It’s been a while since you’ve been part of the Frankfort scene. It’s not the same place it was 20 years ago. So, let lawmakers from both parties help you get reacquainted. Listen to them. Meet with them often. Work with them. Get your legislative proposals to them in a timely fashion.

Of course, the most obvious lesson to be learned from the last four years is: Don’t mess with the merit system. Political hires are fine for non-merit positions. But let the merit system work the way it was designed to work.

I guess that covers most of the major points. But there are a couple of small admonitions I would share with you.

Please do not designate one of your four canine companions - Chauncey, Annie, Kelsey or Sam - the First Dog and have his or her picture handed out to tourists visiting the Capitol. That is too cute by far.

And it might be a good idea to avoid having any horse-drawn vehicles in your inaugural parade.

Just as Fletcher was settling in to watch the festivities four years ago, a couple of horses pulling vehicles in his parade made their own mess in Frankfort — right in front of the reviewing stand.

That proved eerily prophetic.

A governor who will walk to work

One difference between the outgoing state administration and the incoming one is that Gov.-elect Steve Beshear intends to walk to work across the 100 yards or so that separates the Governor's Mansion from the state Capitol instead of having a member of his security team drive him as Gov. Ernie Fletcher has done.

After announcing some more additions to his staff today, Beshear was asked about the hidden door Fletcher had installed that allowed him to go from his office to a conference room without walking down a public hallway. Beshear didn't really answer that question, but said "I think I'm going to walk" to work.

Refreshing. Very refreshing.

A victim of his own political lunacy

Today's column:

FRANKFORT — Gov. Ernie Fletcher lost any chance for re-election during a span of about 15 hours in late August 2005.

On the evening of Aug. 29, Fletcher held his little Pardonin’ Pep Rally in the Capitol Rotunda to announce that he was granting immunity from prosecution to all of his aides and friends in the BlackBerry Jam hiring scandal.

The next morning, the governor, who initially pledged to seek the “unvarnished truth” about hiring practices in his administration, instead exercised his Fifth Amendment right not to incriminate himself during a two-minute, 18-second appearance before the special Franklin County grand jury investigating allegations of merit system abuses.

Subsequent events — including his indictment and the deal he cut to get the charges against himself dismissed — provided extra nails for Fletcher’s political coffin. But his future had already been determined before the indictment and deal.

His approval rating essentially remained flat-lined below 40 percent, occasionally dipping into the 20s, from August 2005 right up through this campaign. Nothing he did moved the numbers, not even the shameless, desperate pandering to bigotry and intolerance that Kentucky voters witnessed in the closing days of this gubernatorial campaign.

A governor who issues a pre-emptive blanket pardon to protect his cronies and then takes the Fifth himself cannot expect a majority of voters to forgive and forget come time for re-election. What he can expect is to get booted out of office, and emphatically so.

Fletcher and some of his closest advisers may well go to their graves believing he was the victim of a political witch hunt.

But Fletcher was not done in by Attorney General Greg Stumbo, whose office conducted the investigation; nor by the grand jury members he publicly vilified and insulted until they had no reason to show him leniency; nor even by the media that chronicled the hiring scandal.

Fletcher did himself in, with lots of help from his close advisers, by deciding during the course of that first week of the hiring probe that the “unvarnished truth” be damned.

Instead of cooperating, slapping a few hands and putting this episode quickly behind him, he opted to fight the investigation with every means at his disposal; issue the blanket pardon once the indictments started piling up and former Transportation Cabinet official Dan Druen appeared ready to deal with prosecutors; try to work out a “Who do we throw under the bus?” deal with Stumbo; stack the state Supreme Court to get a ruling in his favor; and, in effect, cop a plea to get rid of his own indictments.

All he accomplished with the variety of tactics he employed over the course of the 18-month investigation was to make himself look desperate to keep the truth hidden. And such desperation creates the perception of guilt.

Simply put, the course of actions Fletcher and his advisers came up with in response to the investigation bordered on political lunacy. Through his own ineptitude and that of his staff, he took what should have been a two-week story and turned it into his personal political obituary.

Midweek column

My midweek column, which normally appears on Wednesday (when I write one), will be delayed until Thursday this week to give me a chance to digest the election results.

If you haven't done so already, please go vote for the candidate of your choice.

Commandments, Pence and good advice

1. I believe it's safe to conclude that the copy of the Ten Commandments now on display with other historical documents in the state Capitol's Rotunda was not put there with religion in mind. It was purely an act of political desperation on the part of an incumbent governor who trails badly in the polls one day before the election. Of course, if Gov. Ernie Fletcher had spent more time following the Ten Commandments during his four-year term, his prospects for re-election might not look so bleak now.

2. Ran into Lt. Gov. Steve Pence outside the Capitol this afternoon. He told me he and his wife, Ruth Ann Cox, will be joining the Louisville offices of the Dinsmore & Shohl law firm. She will start Dec. 1, and he will join her there Dec. 11. That's the date of the gubernatorial inauguration.

3. Thanks to the reader who sent me an e-mail saying his Wellness Center calendar says this for tomorrow:

"People who stay home (don't vote) on election day because they don't want to have anything to do with crooked politics have a lot more to do with crooked politics than they think."

There's considerable wisdom in that thought.

Grayson's problem: Will R's stay home?

Sunday's column:

Numerous independent polls have been conducted in the governor’s race during the past several months. The results have been remarkably consistent for such an extended period of time.

None of the “Hail Mary passes” Gov. Ernie Fletcher has tried — from his “Not in my Kentucky home” anti-casino tour early in the campaign to his waving of the Ten Commandments last week — have turned into completions that moved the numbers.

So, we know what’s coming Tuesday, barring an apocalyptic miracle/catastrophe (depending on your choice of candidate).

Democrat Steve Beshear — absent from Kentucky’s political radar for a decade, absent from the gubernatorial discussion for two decades — should make Fletcher a one-termer. And he should do so handily.

“This race is over,” Republican political strategist Ted Jackson told The Courier-Journal last week after that paper’s latest Bluegrass Poll showed Beshear 23 percentage points ahead of the incumbent.

For most observers, the only unanswered questions about this election are:

What will the final margin be?

And will the anti-Fletcher sentiment be strong enough to take Secretary of State Trey Grayson and even Agriculture Commissioner Richie Farmer down with the governor?

Recent polls suggest that the margin should be between 15 percent and 24 percent.

As to the second question, Farmer will likely win no matter how badly Fletcher gets beaten. Farmer’s cult status as one of the “Unforgettables” of University of Kentucky basketball fame immunizes him from anything short of a Democratic tsunami.

Besides, Farmer’s opponent, David Lynn Williams, is a perennial gadfly candidate state Democratic leaders would like to forget. A visitor to the party’s Web site last week would have found a statement about how hard the party “is working to elect our entire slate of nominees” but would not have found Williams’ name in the subsequent list of candidates.

Still, some Democrats worry that their rising tide will lift even Williams’ boat this year, which would prove embarrassing to the party. I suspect their fear is groundless.

Grayson’s fate is considerably more iffy than Farmer’s. I’ve been going back and forth on this one almost on a daily basis. What it comes down to is voter turnout among Republicans.

Grayson will get a decent number of votes from Democrats who respect his ability, his record and his willingness to work across party lines to get the job done. But Grayson obviously isn’t going to win on the basis of Democratic votes.

He needs Republican voters to turn out in sufficient numbers to make his Democratic votes count. And that’s problematic this year, with his party’s loss at the top of the ticket virtually guaranteed.

The danger to Grayson in such a situation is the possibility that Republican voters will be so demoralized by the knowledge that their first governor in three decades almost certainly will be kicked out of office after one term that they may not bother going to the polls.

If that happens, if the Democrats’ dream of beating Grayson before he fleshes his resumé out to gubernatorial or senatorial quality comes true, Republicans will have only themselves to blame — not just for staying at home Tuesday, but for renominating a governor who’s so nuclear that he takes one of the party’s future stars down with him.