KyKurmudgeon

No column Sunday

We've been short-staffed in the H-L editorial department this week, which has led me to focus on getting the daily pages out instead of developing a column.

Campaign quickies

1. After 45 months in office and just over a month before voters choose between him and Democratic challenger Steve Beshear, Gov. Ernie Fletcher suddenly discovers there are (Gasp!) illegal immigrants in Kentucky and some of them may be (Horrors!) criminals? Who is Fletcher hoping to fool with such transparent posturing? Trailing badly in the polls and with his anti-casino crusade not moving his numbers, Fletcher is desperately searching for a hot button to push. His real interest in illegal immigrants lies in exploiting them as a wedge issue, a la same-sex marriage in 2004.

2. Thursday's dust-up between Fletcher and a spokeswoman for Beshear suggests the incumbent governor is getting a bit tightly wound as he sees his hopes for winning re-election fading. Vicki Glass, who worked for Attorney General Greg Stumbo before joining the Beshear campaign, routinely taped Fletcher's comments to reporters during the 18-month BlackBerry Jam hiring investigation. Not until Thursday had Fletcher pushed her hand and tape recorder aside.

Fletcher vs. Stumbo: the numbers game

After reading today's story about Attorney General Greg Stumbo's job approval/disapproval numbers in The Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll, I had to compare them to the same poll's numbers on Gov. Ernie Fletcher to see who emerged from that 18-month BlackBerry Jam hiring investigation with the better public image.

On the approval side, Stumbo had a slight edge - 47 percent to Fletcher's 42 percent overall, 10 percent to Fletcher's 8 percent in the "strongly approve" category.

But on the disapproval side, it wasn't close. Stumbo's disapproval rating stood at 26 percent (11 percent "strongly disapprove") compared to Fletcher's 48 percent (25 percent "strongly disapprove").

Obviously, Kentuckians aren't buying Fletcher's "witch hunt" excuse in any significant numbers. If they were, Stumbo's negatives should be higher.

Well-deserved recognition

Three women who lost their husbands in separate mine accidents and two women whose husbands died in the crash of Comair Flight 5191 will receive the Kentucky Justice Association's Consumer Safety Award Friday.

Iva Melissa Lee, Claudia Cole and Stella Morris, the widows of the miners, are being honored for their work in support of the stronger mine safety legislation recently passed by the Kentucky General Assembly.

Kathy Ryan and Sarah Fortney, the widows of the plane crash victims, are being honored for their unsuccessful attempt to get legislation passed that would allow surviving spouses to sue for loss of consortium (companionship) in cases of wrongful death. Kentucky is one of four states that do not allow spouses to claim loss of companionship. A bill allowing such claims passed the House by a 93-7 vote this year but died in the Senate.

All of these women truly deserve to be honored for the tremendous amount of time and effort they put into their respective causes.

Political exploitation of children

Images of young children can be an effective component of political ads. For instance, Gov. Ernie Fletcher's "Restoring hope" campaign in 2003 featured a variety of engaging shots of youngsters to deliver a message about a better future ahead for Kentucky if he were elected governor. (We'll see in November if voters think he's fulfilled that promise.)

And ads dealing with certain issues almost demand a few pictures of children. The spot Americans United for Change has been airing in Kentucky recently is a perfect example, since it criticized Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell for voting against the State Children's Health Insurance Program. It would have seemed odd not to show children in a health care setting in an ad on that subject.

But while using a few pictures of children to help make a point is one thing, using children (or more accurately, young child actors and actresses) to deliver the full message of a political ad, particularly an attack ad, strikes me as being overly exploitive of youngsters whose age suggests they don't fully appreciate or understand what they're being used to do.

I know the automatic assumption of readers who have come this far will be that I'm talking about the "schoolgirl" ads the Republican Governors Association is airing in an attempt to portray Democratic gubernatorial candidate Steve Beshear as being out of step with Kentucky values. Or maybe even about the "schoolyard bully" ads Fletcher ran in the primary.

And you're right. I do find those ads off-putting. But I'm just as put off by an ad sponsored by Americans Against Escalation in Iraq that features youngsters in fatigues going through simulated basic training exercises to send a message critical of McConnell's stance on Iraq.

When it comes to exploiting young children in ads such as these, I am troubled on a bipartisan basis. I hope other voters are, too.

A question for Steve Beshear

How can you NOT remember liquidator Don Stephens barring you from working on the Kentucky Central Life Insurance Co. case in 1995? I certainly would remember it if my employer years ago suddenly told me to stop writing editorials or columns.

Now, I may not remember all of the editorials and columns I've written over the years, just as I don't expect Beshear to remember every case he's ever handled. But I remember the biggies, the ones that drew the most comment or dealt issues that were the most important to me. And at $21 million in billings for the Stites & Harbison law firm, the Kentucky Central case is the kind of biggie a lawyer ought to remember.

Beshear's flawed memory suggests to me that he has forgotten something else, too, something much more recent, something that is on the verge of putting him in the Governor's Mansion. He's apparently forgotten that Gov. Ernie Fletcher now sits as a 20-point underdog in the governor's race not so much because of what he and/or his underlings did to provoke an investigation of administration hiring practices, but rather how they responded to that investigation with stonewalling, pardons, judge-shopping and court-packing.

For some reason, politicians never quite grasp the truism that the deed itself is rarely as bad as the bungled response.

An ethics investigation that caused Stephens to bar Beshear and four of his Stites and Harbison colleagues from working on the Kentucky Central case for an extended period of time is not the kind of thing a person tends to forget. Unless there's some big-time smoking gun in that still-secret report, it's also not such a big deal, since the liquidation proceeded with Stites & Harbison still on the case (and with Beshear returning to the case after Stephens was replaced as liquidator). But Beshear can turn it into a big deal with lame claims that he doesn't recall anything about it. That's a sure way to start eroding voters' trust in him.

Never say never, but ...

Sunday's column:

Never say never, lest you awake one morning as the embarrassed author of a “DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN” headline.

I keep reminding myself of that each time a new poll comes out showing Democratic gubernatorial candidate Steve Beshear with a seemingly insurmountable 17- to 20-point lead over incumbent Republican Gov. Ernie Fletcher.

After all, the full-scale assault of vicious attack ads we can expect to see in the coming weeks hasn’t really begun yet. If nothing else, a round of negative ads can narrow wide gaps in poll numbers by suppressing voter turnout, leaving each candidate more reliant on his party’s base.

But the latest survey — The Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll — contains evidence that Fletcher can’t even rely on his base this year.

Respondents who identified themselves as evangelicals or born-again Christians broke for Beshear 53 percent to 40 percent.

Evangelicals and born-again Christians have become the heart and soul of the Republican base. If they’re deserting Fletcher, he really is in deep, uh, trouble.

Overall, the Louisville newspaper’s Bluegrass Poll found that 55 percent of respondents planned to vote for Beshear while just 35 percent favored Fletcher, numbers that are very comparable to Beshear’s 56-39 lead in a poll jointly sponsored by the Herald-Leader and WTVQ-TV (Channel 36) and his 58-39 lead in the most recent SurveyUSA poll.

With numbers like these coming out every few days, small wonder that Fletcher has appeared to be increasingly strident, increasingly panicked, even increasingly angry in recent joint appearances with Beshear. Desperation can have that effect on an incumbent politician who senses the end is near.

Never say never, I’ll remind myself one more time before noting that Ted Jackson, a Republican political consultant, raised a couple of important points in the Courier-Journal report on its poll.

Jackson, who supported former U.S. Rep. Anne Northup in the Republican gubernatorial primary, suggested that Fletcher’s fund-raising ability could be negatively affected if he can’t improve his numbers soon.

I suspect poll results already have had an impact on fund-raising in this race, both negatively for Fletcher and positively for Beshear. We’ll know for sure when we see the mid-October campaign finance filings.

My suspicion is based on the unfortunate political reality that big-money donors to gubernatorial campaigns generally are trying to reserve a spot at the public trough. Thus, they tend to bet most heavily on the favorite, a role Beshear has filled since the primary.

Jackson also wondered aloud how long the Republican Governors Association would continue to help the incumbent by funding anti-Beshear ads — or in my words, how long the RGA will continue to pound its sand down Fletcher’s rathole — if his numbers don’t improve.

Perhaps the most troubling question for Kentucky Republicans has less to do with whether Fletcher survives than it does with whether these poll results are indicative of an anti-Fletcher tsunami that could also wash Secretary of State Trey Grayson out of office.

Agriculture Commissioner Richie Farmer, a member of the now legendary “Unforgettables” of University of Kentucky basketball who faces a non-competitive candidate, can survive any storm.

But Grayson, a bright, capable rising Republican star, is at risk. And if he goes down, it will be a loss for the state.

Democrats, of course, would love to take Grayson down now, depriving him of the chance to build on his record and stature as a candidate before he seeks higher office.

And Grayson finds himself in a difficult situation. He might improve his chances of survival by publicly distancing himself from Fletcher in some demonstrable fashion. By doing so, however, he risks alienating the segment of the party that remains loyal to its scandal-plagued governor.

Never say never, I will remind myself one more time.

But aside from Farmer (who should be a lock) and Grayson (who’s competitive), Democrats should be favored in the other down-ticket races, both because they have fielded the more attractive candidates and because of the drag from those negative numbers at the top of the Republican slate.

Campaign quickies

1. Democratic gubernatorial candidate Steve Beshear told the Associated Press that he doesn't "see any reason to change" the "Kentucky - Unbridled Spirit" brand inflicted - and I do mean inflicted - on this state by Gov. Ernie Fletcher's administration. "I happen to like the horse-related logo," Beshear said. Arrrggggh! Puhleeze tell me he was kidding.

2. Why am I not surprised that Fletcher, who promoted teaching "intelligent design" in a State of the Commonwealth Address, would dodge a question about whether "global warming" is a reality? What does surprise me is why someone who has such little regard for real science chose to become a doctor.

An excellent sentiment

Saw a great bumper sticker while out at lunch and thought I would share it with you:

I'M STRAIGHT BUT NOT NARROW

McConnell's falling numbers

Noticed a new post on Sen. Mitch McConnell's blog (Mitch's Bluegrass Blog) today that quoted a U.S. News & World Report story on some poll numbers for the Senate minority leader. The magazine cited a TargetPoint poll from mid-August that put McConnell's approval rating at 53 percent (with a 30 percent disapproval rating) and a Voter/Consumer Research poll from early August that gave him a 59 percent approval rating.

It's interesting to note that these two polls suggest that McConnell's approval rating actually fell 6 points in a matter of a couple of weeks. Combine that with the findings of last week's Herald-Leader/Action News 36 poll that found McConnell currently has a 47 percent approval rating among Kentuckians (with a 44 percent disapproval rating), and you see a troubling trend for Kentucky's senior Senator.

Of course, no strong, well-financed Democrat has taken a definite leap into this race yet. And Kentucky Democrats recently have had considerable difficulty getting their A Team to get off the bench for high-profile statewide races. So, McConnell may not have all that much to worry about despite his declining numbers.